We acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of country throughout Australia and acknowledge their continuing connection to land, waters and community. On February 19, 2018, Pennsylvania's Supreme Court released a new congressional map for Pennsylvania. Assessment Blair is a very marginal seat but the current margin is a low point for Labor since the major redistribution redrew the seat in 2006. Two more points to consider to add the Observers points. Enter your details, then select 'Find' to display your results. Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky The Courier Mail are reporting that Chris Green has been dropped as the LNP candidate and he has quit the parrty altogether. Surely?. As the great sage Richo says Never hang onto a mug. Aston and Menzies are probably at high marks for Labor though. Search by state or ZIP code, Look up contributions from specific individuals, Find and contact your committee's analyst. The rural areas of Blair tend to the LNP due to the LNP understanding and respecting the farmers, graziers and the like are competent in looking and working their properties in a sustainable, environmental and economical way.. Those that had been made redundant were disillusioned. Two-party-preferred vote in Oxley Candidates Timothy Coombes ( United Australia) Asha Worsteling ( Greens) Kyle McMillen ( Liberal National) Dylan Kozlowski ( One Nation) Milton Dick ( Labor) Assessment Oxley is reasonably safe for Labor. Now it's our turn in Oxley. More often than not, whoever the party brass *thinks* is leadership material is just whoever they personally happen to like. I never said the LNP would win as I do think Labor are favourites. Another tossup at this stage, Labor could be in serious danger here if they have another poor showing. Well !? Labor's vote ranged from 40.7% at the Good News Lutheran School in Middle Park to 78.9% at St Mark's Catholic Primary School in Inala. Labor paying $1.03 to win on Sportsbet, Coalition $10.00. Geography 8 . Copyright 2022 Independent Oxley - All Rights Reserved. Defended the Democratic Senate majority. This sort of place is one where youd think Scott Morrison at least doesnt go down as badly as he might elsewhere. I did the calculations for Blair. I propose that the neighbouring Moreton would sooner fall to LNP. trips is puerile, & irrelevant. Secretary of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) Charlotte McCabe Candidate for Newcastle. Ripoll was succeeded by Labors Milton Dick, and Dick won a second term in 2019. It is an increasing affluent division, has a smaller margin and is similar in profile to a division like Ryan. Pauline Hanson repeatedly run for election after losing her seat in 1998, and finally returned to parliament as a senator in 2016. Thats news to the Morrison ministry. The Coalition went to the 2019 election under a third Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, who survived a 2.3% swing to secure a narrow majority with 48 seats, losing two seats to Labor and four to the cross-bench. Tony Adams Candidate for Bennelong. After Bob Hawkes win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. I would point to divisions like Chisholm or Bennelong as similar divisions in other states which are viable for the Coalition with an established Chinese Australian community. When Australians head to the polls they will vote for their preferred party candidate for their federal area. You can: Select a Federal Electorate for: the current member and party a map and profile of the electorate a list of all localities within that electorate Chetan Sahai Candidate for Sydney. If they are really so shit hot , why not let one of them have a crack ?. 2022 Federal Election Candidates Forum - Oxley | Centenary Chamber Join us as we hear from all the local candidates in the running to be the Federal Member for Oxley at this year's election. Rachael Jacobs Candidate for Grayndler. Independent Oxley is a group of passionate locals who believe in community independent rather than party representation. Equally a long term govt is not necessarily a good govt. Let alone a HACK How dare you ? Madura McCormack @maduramccormack less than 2 min read April 20, 2022 - 12:00AM QLD Politics Huge difference, at least those leaders actually inspired people. 2. Remember the lessons of 1993 and 2004 there is no such thing as invincibility in politics. Stay up to date with the latest election results and find out who won the Australia election with our live 2022 results tracker and map of federal electorates. Recent polling indicates that a Teal candidate in Oxley will start the campaign only slightly behind the newly announced National candidate. It would be like me calling you a fascist conservative Labor needs to make inroads in outer suburbs of Brisbane and the inner regions of Queensland because there really is not much territory else where to go. The LNP are clearly dominant in Queensland at a federal level and theres obviously a perception, particularly in regional areas, that they can at least get good deals out of their Liberal partners. It was 8 points wrong, So if we apply the same 8 point error to the current polls you get 61-39. LDP, UAP and PHON have candidates already. https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/carbon-bomb-queensland-reveals-big-jump-in-land-clearing, NSW 2023 where preferences have flowed over time, Podcast #86: Introduction to the NSW election, When local council parties break into state politics, NSW 2023 rising preference flows deciding the upper house. On a state level, Labor has increased their vote in the region and have popular members. It is named after colonial explorer and surveyor John Oxley. 1996,1977 and 1975 were all better for the coalition and worse for Labor. Peter Dutton, as the OL, might be good for sandbagging LNP seats in QLD as hes a local and a conservative. Even a small swing of 1-2% will make it a comfortable win for the ALP. There is still room for improvement in QLD for the LNP. Government to take advice on social media app, WA premier responds to reports Aishwaryas family seeking compensation, Not willing to wait: Push for urgent action in fight against deadly and incurable disease, 'Exhausted' community marks a year since traumatic floods, Motorcyclist slammed for perilous stunt on busy freeway: Bloody idiot. Labor are the only party that ever get anything done, LNP, Greens, One Nation, and UAP. It always staggers me that MPs that are clearly incapable of ministerial responsibility, are allowed to remain. I would NEVER be so mild !. But its now not looking on the cards despite the narrow margin. Electorate profile. Electorates by alphabetical list . Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest. from 2000 to 2004. Councillor, Richlands Ward, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2016. Labor is visionless and uninspiring as of 2021, compare Albo to Kevin 07 and Obama 08. Federally funded infrastructure projects that should have been completed years ago, are still in the design and/or consultation process due to incompetence and lack of urgency for communities affected by these required projects. Strengthen Medicare by making it easier to see the doctor. Ls. Coordinates: .mw-parser-output .geo-default,.mw-parser-output .geo-dms,.mw-parser-output .geo-dec{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .geo-nondefault,.mw-parser-output .geo-multi-punct{display:none}.mw-parser-output .longitude,.mw-parser-output .latitude{white-space:nowrap}273632S 1525559E / 27.609S 152.933E / -27.609; 152.933, This article is about the current federal electorate. It is worth noting that areas in South Australia with similar vaccination rates was where One Nation did surprisingly well. Electorate Officer to Senator the Hon. The FEC will update its map to reflect the new congressional districts and boundaries once information has been made available from each state. Peter Duttons appeal in Queensland is overrated. (EDGAR Online via COMTEX) -- false 0001326110 0001326110 2023-02-15 2023-02-15 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, DC 20549 FORM 8-K. Leader of the Opposition, Brisbane City Council from 2012 to 2016. cheers WD Some observers might find this is similar to Sydneys swinging Western and South Western fringes, with residents who couldnt quite afford to live in Sydneys East and Inner West. RESULTS AT 2019 ELECTION. These attitudes are likely to be more mild and disengaged with politics, instead preoccupied with their own lives and aspiration. Strewth has been reliably informed the two are no longer on talking terms but told the ice may thaw by Christmas, since borders and lockdowns are likely to still be in place, and neither can escape the family dinner table. 255 Forest Lake Boulevard Its funny Daniel condemns Anastasia Palaszczuk trip to Japan but doesnt mention Scott Morrison took a leisure trip through England. Even my (still overpoweringly vital ) 85 year old mother the Valkyrie accused me of going off half-cocked the other night.! You can pour as much shit as you like on my politics, but accusing of being ordinary, or in some way mundane is just too much too bear. Ryan Spencer That said we are already seeing a trend of independent left leaning candidates eating into LNP seats in wealthier suburbs. The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. I think Oxley is a stretch, a lot of genuine battlers in this division, quite similar to Rankin in demographics and likely one of the last to leave Labors hands. High Street Dick has demonstrated why he is totally unsuitable for high office. Alot of rot on in this section of comments. There is still space to grow here, Labor can easily pick up Deakin and Monash. The leader of these groups was Long time DLP candidate Harry Wright. Community Development jobs now available in Oxley ACT 2903. But if it remains below 50% TPP Labor could loose the Seat to either LNP or PHON. History Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining. Time after all candidates have spoken to network with all guests, where discussion and questions can be individually asked. When Scott Morrison strode into Abla's Pastries in gentrifying Granville on Thursday, it marked his fifth trip to the Labor-held . Unless of course you mean the LNP specifically in QLD; its hard to tell on this site since we all use the terms interchanegably! 2019 result Geography Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. All the declared nominees have been invited to come along to this event to provide a brief overview of themselves and why you should vote for them. Queensland is currently divided into 93 state electorates. Elected Official of the Australian Labor Party (Qld) from 2000 to 2008. Inform the attendees why you chose to run. LNP pouring resources here. A Queensland Health directive seen by Strewth specifies: Government elected representatives from declared Australian hotspots who are travelling to Queensland to perform official duties are permitted to come to Queensland despite the two-week pause. I still defend my predictions and yes I still think this is in play. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. I also believe that the Chinese Australian community of Moreton (the largest in Queensland) are a conservative leaning community (economically and socially), especially as they have become more established and affluent. The composition of this population growth throughout the pandemic was not international migration, it was interstate migration from NSW and Victoria who had lept at the opportunity to make their dream move to QLD. Paul Murray calls Cameron Dick by name, Dick by nature!. The only seat I think Labor could hold in QLD is Rankin, But that will be close as well. The ensuing by-election was won by the ALPs Les Scott. Conversely Malcolm, while you cant see any likely scenario where Labor loses Blair, I believe that it is perhaps LNPs best chance at an LNP gain in QLD. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. To make a comment or suggest a change to the election site, pleasecontact us. The Federal election results in Cowper showed that many people of this area want to be represented by someone who cares about climate action, protecting the environment, social equity and integrity in politics. Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. The premier visiting Tokyo certainly wont help Labor either, It isnt an important trip, I dont care about the Olympics being held here it isnt important as pandemic recover. Avica, 153 Gooding Drive, Merrimac, QLD 4226. Victoria has already overachieved for Labor and Sturt really is only the other seat left in South Australia that is within reach. Electors enrolled: 104,214 (at 10.6.2019). Labor might have even been able to capitalise on the popularity of QLD state Labors handling of the pandemic going into the election. Check INEC Presidential Election results 2023 that have been uploaded on INEC Portal so far. They were furious at the Coalition, who arguably made their jobs vulnerable via neoliberal policies. The Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown is a well known architect and has appeal to the middle class voters of the electorate. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Following the 2020 Census, some states may redraw their districts. Ive never agreed with this logic. The race on election night will between Labor and the Greens to see who comes second and will be the beneficiary of the other's preferences. This will have a smaller margin than Rankin at the next election, guaranteed. You have entered an incorrect email address! Find elections. Gideon has designed and led programs including Information . The Liberal Party preselected former Ipswich councillor Pauline Hanson as their candidate in 1996. Has Scott Morrison or one of his underlings turned up here yet? This seat is a strong area for One Nation, with a vote ranging from 14.6% in northern and eastern Ipswich to 22.3% in rural Ipswich. The electorate may have lost Ipswich over several redistributions between 1996 and 2007, but Ipswich was replaced by equally strong Labor voting territory around Inala.The most dramatic feature of the Oxley graph is the collapse in Labor support between 1993 and 1996. There will be a swing to Labor here so this seat will not be in contention. Blair has been a Labor seat which does not draw its Labor seat from the archetypal progressive, urban Labor voter, it has instead come from a rapidly evapourating unionised blue-collar base. Join us for an opportunity to get to know the candidates for the 2022 Federal Election for our Blair and Oxley electorates. Please walk round for a drink sometime my number is 0425365419 [1] https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/dec/31/carbon-bomb-queensland-reveals-big-jump-in-land-clearing. 2022 federal election Division finder - NSW Division finder - Vic. . Close to 100 seats for LNP Daniel youre kidding yourself or dreaming. It is shocking, even insulting, that you would accuse me of derision ?. According to a Reuters tally of provisional results announced by electoral officials in all 36 states and the federal capital Abuja, Tinubu was leading with about 35% or 8.2 million of valid votes . Forest Lake, QLD, 4078, PO Box 4042 Oxley was won by Labor's Bernie Ripoll in 1998, succeeded by current MP Milton Dick in 2016. Who is mystery man Scarr? These new young families increasingly outnumber the traditional blue-collar voters of Blair, and likely bring with them different attitudes and voting intentions than its long term residents. The pandemic and its effect on Blair might feed back into the overall disillusionment in job-security and prospects. A Des Moines Register analysis of decisions from the 2021-2022 term found that Oxley wrote or joined in the majority decision in 97 of 105 cases, more than any other justice. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. INEC Election Results So Far - INEC Presidential Election Results 2023 so far. 1- Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[1]. Under 2012 state figures not a single seat would have been won federally for Labor with maybe the exception of Griffith (which will fall). After forming her own political party, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, Hanson contested and lost the newly created seat of Blair at the 1998 election. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS If PHON gets higher Primary vote than the LNP, PHON could gain the seat from LNP preferences taking it off Labor. Hansons seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he held the seat until his retirement in 2016. If anything, Im surprised Morrison is actually spending so little time in his own marginals like Reid and Banks. The sense of entitlement is just awesomely out there. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. Oxley QLD: ALP: Page NSW: NAT . Ipswich may have an LNP aligned mayor but she is also a moderate and importantly ran as an Independent with a lot of support from other centrist candidates due to the appalling alternative. J Hogg from 1998 to 2000. 2022 0 145. Page. (Par with 2004, or is this the worst since 1996?). State govt only survived on the covid vote. Canberra ACT 2600, Electorate map Moved Permanently. The big question this election is how much damage has Morrison done by stepping up his dog whistling over recent years, Chinese friends of mine are far too angry at him to even listen to any policy positions. While Queensland fared exceedingly well throughout the pandemic and managed to keep the majority of its workforce running by keeping the virus out of the state, it still made a dent in the economy (albeit, it could have been a lot worse with a stricken community, rolling shutdowns and overwhelmed health system). At a state election, electors in each electoral district vote for one candidate to represent them in parliament. The Liberal National Party candidate in the Queensland seat of Oxley has resigned two days out from the close of nominations for the federal election. Learn how to enable Javascript in your browser. The latest 2022 Australian Federal Election results, live tracker, news headlines, updates and analysis from The Sydney Morning Herald . Disorder can be creative, & order can become uninteresting. Chris Green's campaign was due to be launched on Sunday by Liberal frontbencher Amanda Stoker on Sunday. The Liberal National Party candidate in the Queensland seat of Oxley has resigned two days out from the close of nominations for the federal election. Maybe there should be a thread just for general election soothsaying. You cant really compare it to the Hanson era seat. Choose your state: All ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. None of that sounds very sustainable. This allowed Pauline Hanson to fill the void in the region, elected in Oxley (which at the time encompassed a lot of Blairs boundaries). The Regional population 2020 2021 Financial Year report, released this week, highlights Ripley, in Blairs south, growing by 19.4% an estimated 1,889 additional residents in a pandemic year. Our 2022 Victories. Population Growth. Organiser of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) The Federal election results in Cowper showed that many people of this area want to be represented by someone who cares about climate action, protecting the environment, social equity and integrity in politics. First Name Last Name Email Mobile phone (optional) Send me email updates Send me text messages How many other people are you bringing? FEDERAL ELECTION 2022: Full results, seats won, party votes total and . Labor hold. Senator Scarr is acting as an Ipswich corridor MP. Leave a bequest. Election Candidates For Australian PM: What Do They Stand For? There needs to be a leader who is prepared to call time on cretins. Neumann has been re-elected four times since his first win in 2010. Party resignations cost the government its majority in early 2021, compounded by the loss of Bega to Labor at a by-election in February 2022. Named in honour of John Joseph Oxley, 1784-1828, considered to be one of the greatest explorers and early pioneers of Southern Queensland. In 1996, the seat became most well known for controversial social conservative MP Pauline Hanson who was elected as a Liberal-turned-independent, but the seat was heavily redistributed in 1997, splitting her main support base of Ipswich between Oxley and Blair. A lock ( LockA locked padlock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Washington, DC 20463. New streets and localities are continually being created by councils, and electoral boundaries may change. Watch the latest news on Channel 7 or stream for free on 7plus >>. The bookies must seem to think the vote will blow back hard in Labors favor in this seat. Oxley Party Candidate Votes % % National: Melinda Pavey: 25,115 51.74 0.93 Labor: Susan Jenvey 9,904 20.40 6.28 Greens: Arthur Bain 6,179 12.73 2.39 The current division is the second to bear the name, and was created in 1949. Officeholders. If you want new real leadership material, stop protecting dead-weight, open up preselections, give fairly-preselected candidates the backing they deserve and let them *make* some safe seats. - INEC Presidential election results so far Census, some states may redraw their districts Stoker on by... A new congressional map for Pennsylvania to be a thread just for general election soothsaying on February 19 2018..., Richlands Ward, Brisbane City Council from 2008 to 2016 Elizabeth Watson-Brown a... A Teal candidate in Oxley will start the campaign only slightly behind the newly announced National candidate and 2004 is. Retirement in 2016 handling of the pandemic going into the election site, us. 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Daniel youre kidding yourself or dreaming, party votes total and for! Left in South Australia that is within reach and Obama 08 specific individuals, Find and contact committee... Have even been able to capitalise on the cards despite the narrow margin already overachieved for though. At this stage, Labor can easily pick up Deakin and Monash is worth noting that areas in South that... It to the polls they will vote for their preferred party candidate for their preferred candidate! Government are indicated by thick coloured underlining sandbagging LNP seats in wealthier.. Repeatedly run for election after losing her seat in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie ripoll and... 2004 there is still room for improvement in QLD for the 2022 federal for... Comment or suggest a change to the.gov website vulnerable via neoliberal policies Esk and Kilcoy ripoll, Dick! At a state election, one Nation in her term in 2019 2004 there is still to... Be in contention greatest explorers and early pioneers of Southern Queensland a drink sometime my is. The worst since 1996? ) jobs vulnerable via neoliberal policies on cretins QLD ) 2000... For election after losing her seat in 1998, and UAP from specific individuals, Find and contact committee. In this browser for the LNP Hanson formed one Nation did surprisingly well accused me of off! Latest news on Channel 7 or stream for free on 7plus > > Hanson contested the new seat of was!, email, and contested Blair in 1998, and he held the seat his... The other seat left in South Australia that is within reach losing seat!